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ORIGINAL PAPER
 
 

HydroProg: a system for hydrologic forecasting in real time based on the multimodelling approach

Tomasz Niedzielski 1  ,  
Maciej Kryza 3,  
Paweł Netzel 3,  
Piotr Migoń 3,  
 
1
Institute of Geography and Regional Development, University of Wrocław Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Bartycka 18a, 00-716 Warsaw, Poland
2
Mathematical Institute, University of Wrocław, pl. Grunwaldzki 2/4, 50-384 Wrocław, Poland
3
Institute of Geography and Regional Development, University of Wrocław, pl. Uniwersytecki 1, 50-137 Wrocław, Poland
4
Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Bartycka 18a, 00-716 Warsaw, Poland Faculty of Environmental Engineering and Land Surveying, University of Agriculture in Kraków, al. Mickiewicza 24/28, 30-059 Kraków, Poland
Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manage. 2014;2(2):65–72
Publish date: 2015-02-18
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The objective of this paper is to present the concept of a novel system, known as HydroProg, that aims to issue flood warnings in real time on the basis of numerous hydrological predictions computed using various models.The core infrastructure of the system is hosted by the University of Wrocław, Poland. A newly-established computational centre provides in real time, courtesy of the project Partners, various modelling groups, referred to as “project Participants”, with hydrometeorological data. The project Participants, having downloaded the most recent observations, are requested to run their hydrologic models on their machines and to provide the HydroProg system with the most up-to-date prediction of riverflow. The system gathers individual forecasts derived by the Participants and processes them in order to compute the ensemble prediction based on multiple models, following the approach known as multimodelling. The system is implemented in R and, in order to attain the above-mentioned functionality, is equipped with numerous scripts that manipulate PostgreSQL- and MySQL-managed databases and control the data quality as well as the data processing flow. As a result, the Participants are provided with multivariate hydrometeorological time series with sparse outliers and without missing values, and they may use these data to run their models. The first strategic project Partner is the County Office in Kłodzko, Poland, owner of the Local System for Flood Monitoring in Kłodzko County. The experimental implementation of the HydroProg system in the Nysa Kłodzka river basin has been completed, and six hydrologic models are run by scientists or research groups from the University of Wrocław, Poland, who act as Participants. Herein, we shows a single prediction exercise which serves as an example of the HydroProg performance.
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Tomasz Niedzielski   
Institute of Geography and Regional Development, University of Wrocław Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Bartycka 18a, 00-716 Warsaw, Poland, pl. Uniwersytecki 1, 50-137 Wrocław, Poland