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Integrated Assessment of Change in Contribution of Excessive Moisture Effects to Farming Risks in the Humid Zone of Western Russia

 
1
Agrophysical Research Institute
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ABSTRACT
The paper is devoted to assessing the farming risks associated with excessive moisture effects in the Humid zone of Western Russia over the last seven decades. The proposed spatiotemporal monitoring of the areas of this zone vulnerable to overwetting allows us to evaluate the aggregative impact of climate variability and change on the degree of risk farming with time. Furthermore, the detailed grad scale of the G.T. Selyaninov Hydrothermal Index (HTC) high values in July is also proposed to identify the recurrence and intensity of such risk as lodging under ongoing climate change (by comparison within two 35-yr time intervals: 1945- 1979 and 1980 – 2014). The functional analysis of HTC helps to show an increasing contribution of extreme precipitation sums to the lodging intensity in comparison with the air temperature sums contribution in recent decades, even in the cases when the thermal resources have a tendency to increase. Moreover, the regression relationships between high precipitation sums and HTC high values are revealed more distinctly in the time interval of 1980 - 2014 due to a decrease in the residual variance. The comparative analysis of empirical distributions of the seasonal precipitation sums deviations from trends within time intervals 1946 – 1980 and 1981 – 2015 also confirmed the increasing recurrence of marginal positive anomalies in summertime and autumn precipitation totals in the time interval of 1981 - 2015.
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Mikhail Nikolaev   
Agrophysical Research Institute